New Delhi: The American intelligence community on Wednesday told lawmakers that it apprehends increased tension between India and Pakistan and India and China with the possibility of a conflict between them, PTI reported.
The US Director of National Intelligence in its annual threat assessment has predicted that India-China ties will remain strained after the 2020 Galwan clash and raised fears about an Indian retaliation against Pakistan in the event of a “terror attack” on India or a “violent unrest in Kashmir” orchestrated by Pak-based extremist groups.
In the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war, the unclassified report notes India’s potential conflicts with China and Pakistan could spillover with repercussions that may require immediate attention of the United States.
Noting that the Russia-Ukraine war has emerged as a defining characteristic of the current era, the report said China has the capability to directly attempt to alter the rules-based global order while increasingly pushing to change global norms and potentially threatening its neighbours.
Highlighting the expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border, the report warned about the elevated risk of armed confrontation between the nuclear powers that “might involve direct threats to U.S. persons and interests, and calls for U.S. intervention.”
While India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, relations will remain strained in the wake of the countries’ lethal clash in 2020, the most serious in decades, said the report.
The expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to US persons and interests, and calls for US intervention. Previous standoffs have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has the potential to escalate swiftly, it said.
According to the report, the crises between India and Pakistan are of particular concern because of the risk of an escalatory cycle between two nuclear-armed states. New Delhi and Islamabad probably are inclined to reinforce the current calm in their relationship following both sides’ renewal of a ceasefire along the Line of Control in early 2021.
