Srinagar– Kashmir Valley woke up to a blanket of heavy snow on Saturday morning, with south and central Kashmir bearing the brunt of the unpredicted weather event.
The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) Srinagar station had forecast light rain and snowfall for the region on December 27 and 28, but the valley experienced over two feet of snow in some areas, catching residents, authorities, and travellers completely off guard.
The failure of weather models to predict this intense spell of snow has raised serious questions about the accuracy and preparedness of the meteorological forecasting system in the region.
The inaccurate forecast by the Meteorological Department (MET) in Jammu and Kashmir has created chaos on the ground with many travellers especially tourists found themselves stranded in life-threatening situations.
People largely blame the weather department and its current incharge in Jammu and Kashmir Mukhtar Ahmad for the inaccurate prediction that caught everyone off guard.
The MET had predicted light rainfall and scattered snowfall in some areas on Friday, but as the day proceeded the plains of Kashmir witnessed heavy snowfall in the afternoon that continued throughout the night leaving people stranded on all the major roads.
Meteorologists and independent weather forecasters acknowledged gaps in prediction models, saying the surprise snowfall was due to the region’s unique and variable weather patterns.
Dr Mukhtar Ahmad, senior scientist at the IMD, said they rely on global models from Europe, the US, Japan and others for forecasting.
“None of the models, whether Indian or global, indicated snowfall of this magnitude,” Dr Mukhtar Ahmad admitted.
He said models indicated some precipitation in the Jammu and Chenab Valley regions, but there was no significant indication of such heavy snowfall in south Kashmir.
“No model suggested heavy snowfall for KMR Div even yesterday. As per f/c,Rain was expected for plains of JAMMU & light snow over middle & higher reaches of Chenab valley & South KMR & didn’t expect that much moisture flow over South & Central KMR,” Dr. Mukhtar wrote on X.
Sonam Lotus, a senior most official in the Weather Department (IMD) in an X post, said, “Yes, we underestimated this #WesternDisturbance. Will investigate what we Missed & Grow.”
The inaccurate and unpredicted weather conditions caught travellers and the administration off guard, leading to significant inconvenience and safety concerns.
The heavy snowfall caused roadblocks, particularly on high-altitude routes like Sonamarg, Gulmarg and Pahalgam, where tourists were unprepared for the sudden weather shift.
At many places, the local villagers had to unlock mosques and their homes to provide shelter to the stranded travellers. “At some places babies are found in cars without milk and other essential supplies,” as per the social media reels and videos.
Around 2000 vehicles were stranded on the vital Srinagar-Jammu National Highway, the valley’s lifeline due to the snow accumulation.
Similarly, the flight operations at Srinagar International Airport were affected, leaving visitors stuck without proper accommodations.
The failure of the MeT Department to predict the intensity of snowfall has drawn severe criticism from both locals and tourists on social media.
The Hoteliers and travel agencies expressed frustration, stating that better forecasts could have allowed for more preparation and minimized disruption.
People took to the social media platforms to express their frustration and backlash against the MET.
Those stuck on several roads shared their ordeals, with some posting pictures of being stranded in snowbound vehicles or makeshift shelters. Others tagged the MET department and government authorities, demanding accountability for the oversight.
Meanwhile, experts have attributed this weather anomaly to La Niña, which often brings unpredictable weather systems, saying increased moisture flow from the Arabian Sea is a contributing factor.
